Alien: Romulus

Better Man

Dune: Part Two

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Wicked

Of course Dune: Part Two is going to win VFX. The first Dune breezed through the awards season with flying colors and took its streak way up to the Oscars, winning eight awards there. Now it seems like the second part is going to repeat one of its slam dunks and win Best VFX again. I suppose I’m okay with that, because those sci-fi boom-booms are quite spectacular. 

As much as I want the Planet of the Apes franchise to finally get recognized for its astounding motion-capture technology, it’s been outclassed every single year without fail and it makes me unreasonably angry (all three have been nominated and all have lost to other, admittedly great movies). Why must they release their movies in the years with the most special effects competition?!

Let’s hope the recency bias working against Dune: Part Two this season continues to work its magic. Not that I dislike the movie — I just really, really want Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes to win. Somebody has to take the fall, and it’s not gonna be my monkeys!

And as for some of the other nominees: Nobody ended up seeing Better Man, which sucks because its photorealistic Robbie Williams ape looks incredible; and Wicked also has lots of photorealistic primates, which makes this whole category just a whole bunch of monkey business (ba-bing).

PERSONAL PICK: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

BALLOT PREDICTION: Dune: Part Two

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Nickel Boys

Sing Sing

This is a lock if I’ve ever seen one. Conclave has swept this category the entire season, and it doesn’t appear to be losing any of its momentum anytime soon. I’d say that it’s deserved, because that screenplay is the cream of the crop. I wouldn’t start a riot over a surprise Nickel Boys win, though…

PERSONAL PICK: Conclave

BALLOT PREDICTION: Conclave

Anora

The Brutalist

A Real Pain

September 5

The Substance

Now this is where it gets tough. Best Original Screenplay is just one of many categories this year where, contrasting with last year’s race, multiple candidates can almost definitely take the writing award home. It makes this not only tougher for voters deciding on the finalist, but tougher for me, who has real money on the line deciding who I want to endorse.

A Real Pain ended up winning the British Academy Film Award (BAFTA) for its screenplay in a shocking turn of events, but Anora picked up the Writer’s Guild of America (WGA) prize just a week or so prior. And The Substance has both a Cannes Film Festival and a Critic’s Choice award under its belt. The statistics are all matched, so predictors like myself are in a bit of a pickle at the moment.

If I were to decide right now, I’d probably say that Anora will be the winner in the end. It’s a major player for Best Picture and audiences evidently love every aspect of it — especially the screenplay — and I can’t exactly say the same for the other nominees in this category. Even the screenplay in The Brutalist, as fantastic as it is, is not something in that movie voters are scrutinizing. And nobody cares about September 5, so we don’t have to worry about that.

But I love the screenplay in Anora! It’s a really masterful and tight “fairytale”-esque story that we don’t really see often in the big year of 2025. I feel the same about A Real Pain, if not even stronger. That’s why I’m picking the latter while predicting the former, because one rings more true in “I’ve gotta get number one on GoldDerby” Lucas’ brain than it does in “this screenplay is really something special” Lucas’ brain. Matter over mind, I suppose.

PERSONAL PICK: A Real Pain

BALLOT PREDICTION: Anora

Flow

Inside Out 2

Memoir of a Snail

Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

The Wild Robot

When Flow won Best Animated Feature near the beginning of the Golden Globes, myself and many others had begun to conjure up a lot of hope for it at the Oscars. That, of course, was before the Golden Globes concluded and I was reminded of just how terrible that award show really is. But Flow did not triumph over Wallace & Gromit at the BAFTAs, and it desperately needed to surpass the British bias for that movie to prove that it could put up a good fight in a compromising situation. Hope subsequently dwindled. People acted like it was the end of the world when it lost, but all it needs is a little nudge to edge ahead of Dreamworks’ The Wild Robot. That’s easier said than done, though…

The Wild Robot resonated with audiences more than any animated movie I’ve seen come out in the last couple of years. It’s been consistently praised and awarded throughout the season and has been in tight competition with Flow to end up taking the Animated Feature prize home. What gives The Wild Robot the edge is simply that more people have seen it. More people have seen it, and more people like it. Sometimes overstimulating marketing campaigns are a good thing. They get you those popular votes, don’t they?

I am, however, picking Memoir of a Snail as my “wish this could happen” entry. This has no steam and is the textbook definition of a pipe dream, but it is easily the greatest animated movie I’ve seen in years. If, despite all the odds stacked against it, Memoir of a Snail somehow snatched the award away from both frontrunners, I would eat the hat of whoever is sitting next to me. Look out, attendees of Lucas’ Oscar Party!

PERSONAL PICK: Memoir of a Snail

BALLOT PREDICTION: The Wild Robot

France, Emilia Pérez

Latvia, Flow

Denmark, The Girl with the Needle

Brazil, I’m Still Here

Germany, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Due to Emilia Pérez losing all of its momentum within the first week of it being nominated (controversy CENTRAL), it’s not a terrible choice to switch sides to the only other Best Picture nominee in the category. Best International Feature Film is usually the easiest category to predict every year because there is always one singular movie within it that is also nominated for Best Picture, so of course that’s the one that will win.

Thank God this is not one of those years, and we finally have a race going. If I’m Still Here pulls through, then Emilia Pérez will be officially dead in the water. Praise the Lord almighty.

PERSONAL PICK: I’m Still Here

BALLOT PREDICTION: I’m Still Here

The Brutalist

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Maria

Nosferatu

Watch the first three minutes of The Brutalist and you immediately want it to win everything it possibly can, cinematography especially. If this doesn’t win, I don’t know what I’m going to do with myself.

PERSONAL PICK: The Brutalist

BALLOT PREDICTION: The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Gladiator II

Nosferatu

Wicked

I cannot believe that Gladiator II got a nomination here. I suppose the costumes are the best part of that movie in the same vein that Zoe Saldaña is the best part of Emilia Pérez, but being the best of the worst does not make you good by default. You are down there with the worst in the first place for a reason.

But yeah, Wicked’s won this category pretty much all season, so I don’t see it faltering at the Oscars of all places. One of two awards that this 10 times-nominated movie will win, and the “Arianators” will just have to come to terms with that.

PERSONAL PICK: Wicked

BALLOT PREDICTION: Wicked

Anora

The Brutalist

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Wicked

Now this is a tough race. I could imagine a future in which any one of these movies takes this home, because the Academy is sometimes stupid like that. There’s a difference between movies with purposeful editing and “Dang, that’s a lot of cuts” editing. I can name two movies in this category that fall into the latter slot, and I bet you can’t guess which ones they are.

The editing in Conclave is purposeful and tight, and keeps you glued to a slow-moving drama in ways that most movies in its genre would not be able to do. The papal movie’s biggest competitor is probably Anora, which has been trading off televised award show wins with Conclave in Best Editing like clockwork. You won’t be considered crazy if you go for Anora here; but if you want to have a shot at ballot greatness, go for literally anything else and pretend to be shocked when you lose this category.

PERSONAL PICK: Conclave

BALLOT PREDICTION: Conclave

A Different Man

Emilia Pérez

Nosferatu

The Substance

Wicked

A Different Man should be up for so much more than just this one award that it has no chance of winning! For that, Sebastian Stan should have two Best Actor nominations this year — and we can get rid of Timothée Chalamet’s, so long as he sweeps the season with whatever the heck he ends up doing next year (Note that I figured out in the process of editing this that getting two nominations in the same acting category is not feasible according to Academy rules. Sucks for Stan).

Anybody not picking The Substance here is not paying attention to what is going on and will fall behind in the ballot game. Check on your loved ones, because there is a concerning amount of people who think that Wicked is going to win this! All they did was turn her green. They. Turned. Her. Green. 

PERSONAL PICK: The Substance

BALLOT PREDICTION: The Substance

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

Wicked

Fine, fine, I suppose I’ll predict Wicked for this category. The sets in Wicked are quite immaculate — the same with all the others nominated here. As much as I think The Brutalist does something incredibly special with its meager budget of 10$ million, Wicked is simply too strong to be topped by it. Womp womp.

PERSONAL PICK: The Brutalist

BALLOT PREDICTION: Wicked

A Complete Unknown

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Wicked

The Wild Robot

Dear Academy: Stop nominating music movies for Best Sound. They don’t do anything new and it’s simply the capturing of the live vocals that leave you scrambling for the polls. Nominate literally anything else. Thanks, Lucas J. DeLuca.

I picked The Wild Robot here because it has the only truly unique sound design within it, but I predicted Dune: Part Two because the Academy is deaf and will award Best Sound to anything with the Dune label slapped on it, because sci-fi equals boom-booms, which equals big sound in movie. I guess I’m fine with that, I just want an animated film to finally break the mold of “that one singular Best Animated Feature win” that it gets forced to accept. Let them win something else as well, please!

PERSONAL PICK: The Wild Robot

BALLOT PREDICTION: Dune: Part Two

The Brutalist

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Wicked

The Wild Robot

No comment on this one. It has to be The Brutalist and only The Brutalist or I am eating another hat if my Memoir of a Snail fantasy is also realized. Nobody wear a hat to my Oscars party! It will get eaten if I am wrong and will get eaten if I am right! No hat-wearer is safe.

…BA DA DA DUMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!! Gotta love that BIG BRASS!

PERSONAL PICK: The Brutalist

BALLOT PREDICTION: The Brutalist

Elton John: Never Too Late – “Never Too Late”

Emilia Pérez – “El Mal”

Emilia Pérez – “Mi Camino”

Sing Sing – “Like A Bird”

The Six Triple Eight – “The Journey”

As much as I want to predict the Elton John song or the Sing Sing song, Emilia Pérez’s “El Mal” just has too tight of a hold on this category for me to do so. Diane Warren’s “The Journey” is the only thing standing between now and a win for Emilia Pérez, and I am praying that it gets the votes it needs. I’m not predicting it, however, because rooting for the underdog by a mile is far too risky. I want to win the Oscars, not be a wishful thinker when preparing my ballot. 

Besides, that Elton John song is better than both, so why does it matter? This category is so bad this year. Two good songs and three terrible ones? Get with the program, Academy!

PERSONAL PICK: “Never Too Late”

BALLOT PREDICTION: “El Mal”

Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown

Ariana Grande – Wicked

Felicity Jones – The Brutalist

Isabella Rossellini – Conclave

Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez

SAG was Ariana Grande’s last chance to prove that she could be an actual threat to Zoe Saldaña in the Supporting Actress race, and she blew it. That final loss not only solidified the unfortunately high odds of Zoe winning, but reminded us of the unfortunately high odds of Ariana losing. Wicked stans can wish they may, wish they might for Grande to have one of the most unexpected Academy Award wins of all time, but believe me when I say that she has a slim-to-none shot. Nearly none. Zilch. Nada. (Insert sad trombone noises here.)

My pipe dream is to see Felicity Jones on that stage thanking the Academy for this award. I know that it won’t happen, however, because Oscar voters are reportedly not even staying past intermission for The Brutalist, which is where her character first appears. Honestly, I’d give her the nomination just for her Hungarian voiceovers she does in the first half of the movie. Acting without a face is tough, guys. 

But yeah, I’m 99.9% confident in Saldaña for this, even if I dislike her in Emilia Pérez so, so much. Supporting Actress and Original Song are currently the only Oscars that movie is pegged to even come close to winning, and it better stay that way, or else I will eat my hat on Sunday night. I’m eating a lot of freakin’ hats, guys.

PERSONAL PICK: Felicity Jones

BALLOT PREDICTION: Zoe Saldaña

Yura Borisov – Anora

Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain

Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce – The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice

The only other even slightly logical pick here would be Edward Norton because he is long overdue for an Oscar win and Academy voters may be thinking exactly what I’m thinking. The real person to pick would be Kieran Culkin, because he has won every award this season without fail. Culkin breezed through the circuit with no problems, and he is going to take his streak all the way to the Oscars with no opposition present. Unless Norton wants to pull a fast one on us… which he historically never has.

PERSONAL PICK: Guy Pearce

BALLOT PREDICTION: Kieran Culkin

Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo – Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes – Conclave

Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice

A lot of people decided to change their Brody prediction to Timmy after the latter narrowly snatched the SAG award from the former last Sunday, but I’m not not seeing it. Like, do they know that Brody won everything else all season? The Golden Globe? The BAFTA? The Critic’s Choice? People now think this is a much more competitive category than it really is, because Paul Giamatti and Cillian Murphy’s photo-finish race for Best Actor last year set the bar so high for these sorts of feuds. However, it’s much more one-sided this go-around.

Now, it’s not impossible for Chalamet to turn his losing situation into a win. If he hadn’t won the SAG last week, I’d say that he wouldn’t have a chance, but actors have won the Academy Award before with simply a Screen Actor’s Guild award or even no awards to their name — akin to, ironically, Adrian Brody for The Pianist.

Brody may have the full package right now, but only time will tell if not having that final notch on his belt ends up ruining him. I’m feeling pretty doubtful about him losing, though, because he is exceptional in The Brutalist. He deserves to be recognized for his role, and I am truly eager to see that charming face on the stage of the Dolby Theater this weekend holding its second Oscar.

PERSONAL PICK: Adrien Brody

BALLOT PREDICTION: Adrien Brody

Cynthia Erivo – Wicked

Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez

Mikey Madison – Anora

Demi Moore – The Substance

Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here

Best Actress is consistently the toughest category for me, Lucas J. DeLuca, to predict. I got it wrong last year when I picked Lily Gladstone over Emma Stone, and I am now supposedly set up for failure again picking Fernanda Torres. 

I’m not entirely wrong on this one, though! Unlike last year, I am much more knowledgeable about this awards season and the direction it’s headed, and I am going into the Oscars with the most information I could possibly have on who to pick.

The safest bets to mark on your ballot here are Mikey Madison and Demi Moore, with Madison being a slightly (emphasis on slightly) better choice due to Anora’s status as a Best Picture frontrunner. Moore could also take it because she’s a legacy performer, but I’m less confident in The Substance’s versatility among voters. Everybody says this is a two-person race, and if you said that, then you would probably be right.

However, I’m Still Here is nominated for Best Picture. Because of that, voters are seeing it when they normally wouldn’t if it was just nominated for Best International Feature. Anybody who even slightly likes I’m Still Here ends up voting for Torres on their ballot; and while anonymous ballots aren’t the best gauge for support, it gives me hope. I would not be voting for Torres if her film was not a Best Picture nominee, but the fact that it is gives her the chance of a lifetime. I could be wrong on this one, but what else is new?

Fernanda Torres being the first Brazilian to win an acting Academy Award just rolls off the tongue so well…

PERSONAL PICK: Fernanda Torres

BALLOT PREDICTION: Fernanda Torres

Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez

Brady Corbet – The Brutalist

Sean Baker – Anora

Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

James Mangold – A Complete Unknown

This is either Sean Baker or Brady Corbet. Baker has the Director’s Guild win, but that’s a very dodgy precursor to go into the ceremony with because it is right only about 50% of the time. He could totally win because he’s connected to a Best Picture frontrunner, though.

I’m going with Corbet because even people who don’t like The Brutalist admittedly respect his vision and ambition. If those are the people who don’t like it, then how do you think the people who do feel? His vision is, in spirit of the word, visionary. I hope he gets recognised for his outstanding work on The Brutalist.

Imagine Jacques Audiard winning this. Ell. Emm. Ayy. Oh.

PERSONAL PICK: Brady Corbet

BALLOT PREDICTION: Brady Corbet