I am deathly scared of so many things: being alone, the dark and the mere thought of getting my Oscar predictions wrong. I look at my calendar each morning and watch 7:30 a.m. on Thursday, January 22 grow closer every day, and recite my morning prayers to the Lord Almighty: “Dear God, oh, merciful Lord, please keep ‘It Was Just an Accident’ in Best Motion Picture of the Year! Have it barely squeak into the lineup! I don’t want ‘F1’ to get a Best Picture nomination, Jesus! Please! I beg of you! Please!”
My unpaid side-hustle as an Oscar forecaster may forever scar my mental health, but I have to get it right. It ain’t much, but it’s honest work.
It’s Oscar season, folks! We are precisely one day away from the nominations for the 98th Academy Awards being revealed to all of us eager predictors and cinephiles. The “Sinners” stans, the “One Battle After Another” sweep-accepters and the “Wicked: For Good” loathers are all waiting with bated breath to see if their predictions are right, and my breath is equally as bated. We may be predicting different nomination scenarios, but we all have one thing in common: none of us know what we’re doing, what’s going on and why some of us are still denying that “Train Dreams” is 100% getting into the Best Picture lineup.
Here are my predictions for the “Big Five” categories for this year’s Oscars ceremony: what I think is happening in Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Both Supporting Actor and Actress, and both Original and Adapted Screenplay categories. We in the predicting biz call these the “above-the-line” categories, and getting nominated here is really important if you want any smidgen of a shot at winning Best Picture.
Wanna impress your friends with some Oscar knowledge despite never bringing movies up to them before Thursday morning? Read further for my predictions and get at least some easy stuff right! But don’t trust me with your life, folks! I’m making some risky bets this year, so here’s a color key to how confident I am in my prediction of a movie in a category:
GREEN HIGHLIGHT: This is totally happening, and I have little to no doubts about it getting nominated in this category. 90-100% CONFIDENT
YELLOW HIGHLIGHT: Yeah, this could miss, but I’m confident enough to keep it in. 70-80% CONFIDENT
RED HIGHLIGHT: I am pretty scared about predicting this, but I don’t want to swap it out for anything! I’m sticking to my guns, even if I end up being wildly wrong! 40-60% CONFIDENT
BEST PICTURE
“One Battle After Another”
-Exactly one person on AwardExpert.com is predicting this to miss. I feel sorry for them, wherever they are.
“Sinners”
“Hamnet”
“Sentimental Value”
“Marty Supreme”
“Frankenstein”
“Bugonia”
“Train Dreams”
-To anybody still doubting this: why? Nominations for Adapted Screenplay, Original Song, and it could even *win* Cinematography! “Train Dreams” is totally getting in.
“The Secret Agent”
-This *could* miss, as we all know about the Golden Globes and their affinity for awarding movies that quickly become red herrings. I do find it hard to believe that “The Secret Agent’s” sudden surge in real passion is fake news, though, which is why I’m keeping it in. Plus, I don’t know what the heck I’d swap it for.
“It Was Just an Accident”
-Despite losing every award it was projected to win at the Golden Globes to “The Secret Agent,” I am still relatively confident in “It Was Just an Accident’s” ability to make the Best Picture 10— partially because I have no clue what to replace it with. This is probably a bit of a gamble, but I believe the movie will just barely edge into the lineup as a solid #10 contender in the midst of its own collapse.
LOOK OUT FOR
“Weapons”
-Only if it makes Original Screenplay (which could happen).
“F1”
“No Other Choice”
-Only if it makes Adapted Screenplay (which could happen).
“Blue Moon”
-Only if it makes Original Screenplay (which could happen).
“Wicked: For Good”
-Only if Ariana Grande makes Best Supporting Actress (which is not going to happen).
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson – “One Battle After Another”
Ryan Coogler – “Sinners”
Chloé Zhao – “Hamnet”
Joachim Trier – “Sentimental Value
-I remember when people were snubbing him for Josh Safdie in the months before “It Was Just an Accident” became that “snubbable” flick. After winning the European Film Award for Best Director, Joachim Trier is totally getting in here.
Jafar Panahi – “It Was Just an Accident”
-If the movie collapses, so does he. Jafar Panahi will not make the Best Director lineup if “It Was Just an Accident” is as frail as everybody is saying it is. I do not believe it is that weak, hence why Panahi is still in my lineup. The Academy Awards love being the saving grace for foreign directors getting screwed over everywhere else (i.e, Paweł Pawlikowski for “Cold War” and Ryusuke Hamaguchi for “Drive My Car”), and Panahi is that foreign director getting screwed over! They *have* to save him, right…?
LOOK OUT FOR
Josh Safdie – “Marty Supreme”
-A seriously scary contender in this category. If Jafar Panahi misses, then Josh Safdie will take his place.
Guillermo del Toro – “Frankenstein”
Kleber Mendonça Filho – “The Secret Agent”
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet – “Marty Supreme”
Leonardo DiCaprio – “One Battle After Another”
Michael B. Jordan – “Sinners”
Wagner Moura – “The Secret Agent”
Jesse Plemons – “Bugonia”
-With “Bugonia’s” incredible turnout at both the SAG awards and on the BAFTA longlists, don’t count out Jesse Plemons to come along with the movie’s success. I believe he is a bit stronger than Ethan Hawke solely because more people have seen “Bugonia” and it has a Best Picture anchor— unlike “Blue Moon,” which would be lucky to just get Hawke. Don’t doubt Plemons, fellas!
LOOK OUT FOR
Ethan Hawke – “Blue Moon”
-If Jesse Plemons doesn’t make it, then Ethan Hawke will take his place. 78% of AwardExpert users believe Hawke is a sure-fire thing, but they don’t know the stat for films released by Sony Pictures Classics: every movie they’ve gotten an acting nomination with has had another nomination on lock already (ex, “I’m Still Here,” “Living” and “Parallel Mothers”). If “Blue Moon” gets Original Screenplay, then Hawke will 100% come along with it. But if he’s the sole nominee for his movie, he is automatically in danger of being snubbed.
Joel Edgerton – “Train Dreams”
-It was never meant to be 🙁
BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley – “Hamnet”
Rose Byrne – “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Emma Stone – “Bugonia”
Renate Reinsve – “Sentimental Value”
Amanda Seyfried – “The Testament of Ann Lee”
-”Ann Lee’s” odds of getting any other Oscar nomination are less than 0%, if that’s even mathematically possible. However, I think the industry’s goodwill towards Amanda Seyfried (people are buzzing about “The Housemaid,” folks!) and her success despite the movie’s monumental second-half collapse could resurrect her campaign and squeeze her into Best Actress. Besides, Ana de Armas made it in for “Blonde,” a movie with worse reviews out the wazoo. If Ana can do it, so can Amanda.
LOOK OUT FOR
Chase Infiniti – “One Battle After Another”
-Chase Infiniti will be waltzing into the Oscars with every Best Actress nomination possible, and she even has a Best Picture-winning anchor to guide her towards a nomination. Why, oh, why do I have her out of my lineup? I don’t know, to be quite frank. I simply have a religious feeling of sorts that the veteran Amanda Seyfried will beat out the newbie Infiniti. Trust me, I won’t be a bit surprised if I’m way off base for this category, but I’ve gotta differ from the public opinion somewhere to try and get a jump on those surprises. It can’t be as easy as everybody’s thinking, right…?
Kate Hudson – “Song Sung Blue”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Stellan Skarsgård – “Sentimental Value”
Jacob Elordi – “Frankenstein”
Benicio Del Toro – “One Battle After Another”
Sean Penn – “One Battle After Another”
Paul Mescal – “Hamnet”
LOOK OUT FOR
NOTE: You should not look out for anybody in this sub-category, because no person from the main five is going to miss. Paul Mescal is just not going to miss. Sean Penn is simply not going to miss. And despite how much I’d be okay with Benicio Del Toro missing, it’s not gonna happen. If Delroy Lindo or Miles Caton somehow sneaks into the lineup and kicks out one of these powerhouse contenders, then “Sinners” will surely win Best Picture, and neither of them is strong enough to facilitate a crazy comeback like that. Even AwardExpert knows it: Mescal is #5 with a 93% nomination chance, and Adam Sandler is #6 with a 2% chance. “Locked” doesn’t even come close to describing how sewn shut this category is.
Miles Caton – “Sinners”
-He was on Jimmy Kimmel last week singing “I Lied To You,” so maybe these aging Oscar voters saw him on the show and voted for him- I don’t know, man! This just isn’t gonna happen. His SAG nomination is certainly something to hang on the fridge, but the kid is simply not strong enough to eek into the Best Supporting Actor lineup at the Oscars.
Delroy Lindo – “Sinners”
-Maybe his veteran status propels him ahead of Miles Caton to take the fifth slot? Well, over who, exactly? No use wondering if a dead horse can still race.
Adam Sandler – “Jay Kelly”
-Remember back in June when Adam Sandler was #2 for the win in this category? Ha. Ha. Ha. Now that “Jay Kelly’s” more dead than a doornail, he has no chance of making the five if he’s always been “that #6 pick.” Not even the SAGs nominated their beloved Sandler, and they had an open slot for him when they snubbed Stellan Skarsgård! Once Miles Caton leapfrogged Sandler for the #5 spot there, “Jay Kelly” watched its last chance at industry recognition go up in flames. Womp womp.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Teyana Taylor – “One Battle After Another”
Amy Madigan – “Weapons”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – “Sentimental Value”
Wunmi Mosaku – “Sinners”
Odessa A’zion – “Marty Supreme”
-Her surprise showing at SAG pretty much solidified her chances of getting in, methinks. Odessa A’zion is to “Marty Supreme” what Monica Barbaro was to “A Complete Unknown” last year: a newcomer with a lone supporting SAG nod opposite a cuckoo Timothée Chalamet leading role. I doubt she misses at this point, especially in the midst of the “Marty Supreme” surge.
LOOK OUT FOR
Elle Fanning – “Sentimental Value”
-Missing both SAG and especially BAFTA (absent from a longlist of 10 for a movie they’re supposed to go nuts for) definitely put a dent in Elle Fanning’s nomination chances, and basically killed her campaign. I still think she can make it in at #5 if “Sentimental Value” has a great nominations morning, but Odessa A’zion just has more momentum right now.
Ariana Grande – “Wicked: For Good”
-It’s funny: Ariana Grande will have a nomination at every major precursor this season, but I still think she’s oh-so dead for the Oscar nomination. This is because nobody cares about “Wicked: For Good,” and I believe that very few voters will be itching to give Grande a nomination after already giving her a nod for the first “Wicked” last year. No actor has gotten an Oscar nomination for playing the same character since Sylvester Stallone for reprising Rocky Balboa in “Creed” back in 2015. And even then, “Creed” was the start of a new franchise and not the second half of a movie that came out the year before. It and “Wicked” are totally different things, and the latter is *this* close to being officially pronounced dead come Thursday.
Gwyneth Paltrow – “Marty Supreme”
-After A’zion leapfrogged her for the open SAG slot, Gwyneth Paltrow’s “career narrative” and “playing herself” campaign proved ineffective against a populist voting body usually vulnerable to those manipulation tactics. Paltrow is not the supporting push for “Marty Supreme,” and she will not be getting the Oscar nomination this year.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Sinners”
“Sentimental Value”
“Marty Supreme”
“It Was Just an Accident”
-This is still a lock, and I will not accept any counterarguments. Stop predicting this to miss, especially in friggin’ Original Screenplay!
“Sorry, Baby”
-Since 2010, every winner of the screenplay award at the Film Independent Spirit Awards has been nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars. The second I found this stat, I put “Sorry, Baby” over “Weapons” for my #5 in this category. Sure, only three of those Indie Spirit winners weren’t nominated for Best Picture (“The Lost Daughter, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” and “Nightcrawler”), but the industry’s quiet love towards “Sorry, Baby” makes me mildly confident in its ability to sneak into the Academy Awards.
LOOK OUT FOR
“Weapons”
-Might be a little too genre-y and perspective-shifty for the Oscars, because they never go for movies like that. Then again, if Amy Madigan really does have that big of a shot to win Best Supporting Actress, then it’d make sense for “Weapons” to get *some* other nomination so she’s not the lone nominee for her movie, right? I don’t know, man! I just think the screenplay’s too weird for the Academy Awards. But if this is really the only other nomination “Weapons” has even a minuscule chance of getting (since it didn’t even make the Best Makeup and Hair shortlist, shockingly), then I’m oh-so tempted to put it in as my #5…
“The Secret Agent”
“Blue Moon”
“Jay Kelly”
-I just put this here for the LOLs. May you rest in peace, Jay.
“The Testament of Ann Lee”
-See above.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“One Battle After Another”
“Hamnet”
“Bugonia”
“Train Dreams”
“Frankenstein”
-If “No Other Choice” were to somehow rear its head, it would probably kick out “Frankenstein” despite its status as a top-five contender compared to “Train Dreams’ ” bottom-five position. I just think that the screenplay to “Train Dreams” has more passion behind it than the screenplay from “Frankenstein,” as that is the critics’ main problem with the movie, if they have any at all. Just a gut feeling here, but I barely need to acknowledge it because “No Other Choice” is so unlikely to happen in Adapted Screenplay.
LOOK OUT FOR
“No Other Choice”
-“No Other Choice” was absent from the BAFTA longlist for Best Adapted Screenplay, and that was a huge miss for it, considering that BAFTAs love international films (and especially Park Chan-wook films). All year, this movie has been steadily losing momentum, which sucks because it’s a fantastic flick with a bangin’ screenplay, but I can’t in good conscience predict it to make the Screenplay five when it’s *this* close to *missing Best International Feature.* The thought of “No Other Choice” blanking on Thursday morning makes me sick, so I have to keep it in the latter for my own sanity. As for the former? Don’t count on it.
